Friday, November 7, 2008

振兴配套有助益,惟尚有更多问题急待解决

本文告转自马华署理总会长拿督斯里蔡细历生部落格

70亿令吉救市配套
政府推行的70亿令吉振兴配套, 我认为将为国内经济带来更全面的效果,长远来说比降低贷款利息更有利于助长国家的经济成长。整体看来,振兴经济配套所提出的项目和步骤,旨于刺激国内消费市场和建筑领域,而这两大领域对国家经济成长有连锁行效应。

2亿令吉拨各源流学校
政府有史以来拨出2亿令吉给国内4个源流学校,即华小、淡小、政府宗教学校及教会学校。马华欢迎这项措施,但我认为分配的方式有欠不公平。2亿令吉由4个源流学校均分,这表示各源流学校只获拨5千万令吉。我国目前有1290间华小、500间淡小及不超过400间教会学校,换言之每间华小只获得超过4万令吉拨款。

不公平的地方在于各源流学校的数量不一,却获得同等的拨款总额。要确保公平分配资源给上述学校,政府不应以源流为均分指标,而应以学校的数量为准,即2亿令吉平均分配给各源流的每一间学校。

就业问题
政府也关注大专生失业,和因经济风暴导致的裁员问题。因此,政府将通过政府官联公司(GLC)招聘,为1万2千名大专生提供就业机会。这是一项令人鼓舞的消息,惟政府必须确保公平和透明化进行招聘,根据申请者的绩效而不是种族考量。人力资源是国家建设和发展的主要动力,摒弃种族主义,唯才是用才能保持国家经济的竞争条件。

全球经济放缓,私人机构也深受打击。初步估计,至少3至5万名在新加坡工作的大马人或回流大马。因此,我认为国内的私人领域也应该配合政府,参与人力栽培计划,为就业市场提供更多就业机会。

简化招聘外国知识专才的程序是一项很重要的措施。我国需要各领域的专才和技术人员(knowledge and skilled),更开明的工作准证程序,及外聘和回流专才家人的移民政策是必要的。

公积金缴纳率
减少雇员公积金缴纳率主要能增加国人可消费的收入,以刺激和带动消费市场。减少3%缴纳率,估算每年可为消费市场增加50亿令吉。维持国人的消费能力,也是遏制消费市场内缩进一步恶化的举措之一。

公开招标政府土地和采购活动
政府准备举行公开招标,以决定政府土地发展和器材征用及采购合约。这是一项能提高政府透明指数和公信力的措施。希望有关当局的招标过程能以公平和透明方式进行。

振兴经济配套不足之处
尽管如此,我认为,稳定和刺激国内市场以后,接下来要做的是贯彻更开明和开放的经济政策,达到真正的市场自由化。这包括检讨现有的土著股权和固打制,解决有关制度与经济开放政策间所产生的矛盾。

马来特权是获得国家宪法保障,当我们讨论和要求检讨土著固打制时,并不是在挑战马来特权,而是以宏观的视野看待问题和加以改善,以促进国家在国际自由化市场上的竞争条件,这是吸引和留住外资、维持国内股票市场吸引力的先决条件。

此外,要减少繁文缛节,以减少商业启营成本。这包括简化商业执照申请和发放、产业转让等程序。如果有关程序牵涉太多机构,将会拖慢申请和批审过程。最终让外资或本地商人失去耐心,将投资转向其他国家。

明显的,我国经济将无法达致第9大马计划所设定的6%年度增长率。今年我们只有5%经济成长,明年估计约3.5%,2010年则更低。长远之计是要为国家开发新的收入来源,不能一味仰赖不稳定的石油收入。



Stimulus Package is good, but more need to be done.
The Stimulus Package of RM 7 billion is a good move to reduce the impact of the economic slowdown following the American financial crisis.

Pumping money into the system is better than just reducing the interest rate. Basically the stimulus package will stimulate construction and will create the multiply effects of upstream and downstream activities.

The reduction of EPF contribution of 3% which is voluntary will release about 5 billion into the system and will promote domestic consumption.

There is a one off RM 50 million to the Chinese Schools for upgrading works. Some others schools including Tamil and Mission schools also receives the same amount. It may sound unfair as the number of Chinese Primary Schools is 1290 compared to about 500 Tamil Schools. Each Chinese School will get about RM40,000, a small amount for upgrading.

The anticipated slowdown will cause unemployment to go up. The GLC Graduate Training Scheme should be open to all races, and the process of selecting candidate should not be a contentious issues.

The Government is talking about reducing dependence of foreign labour, but there seems to be a lot of talks, very little concrete step to reduce the dependency. This become more important as lay off will increase by year 2010 when Malaysia economic slowdown will be more severe. It will be a sad day when Malaysians are unemployed and the numbers of foreign workers keep on increasing.

More steps should be taken to liberalize the economy. This will include reviewing:

1. The bumiputra equity participation. Bumiputra special rights are enshrined in the constitution. Nobody can take that away. It is a question of how to make Malaysia more competitive and attractive in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and promoting the equity market.

2. Reducing red-tape so that the cost of doing business is reduced. More need to be done for the rapid registration of business, property transfer and application of license that has to go through many agencies. Speed is of essence.

3. Need to attract skilled and professional workers from overseas including Malaysians working oversea. It is estimated that about 30,000 to 50,000 Malaysians working in Singapore will be lay off during this period.

It is obvious that we are unable to achieve the RMK 9 set target of 6% annual economic growth. This year growth is estimated at 5% and 3.5% for next year. As for year 2010, it is estimated to be lower than year 2009 growth.

The time has come for us to be less dependent in oil and petroleum. We have to seek alternative source of revenue to cover the shortfall as the recent of fall in price of oil and also the reserve, which is also depleting. All these call for long term plan which the government must put in place.

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